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Is life after SARS-CoV-2/COVID19 an uncertain prospect?
Psychologists studying decision-making have shown that (1) when people are thinking about the past, instead of elaborating various scenarios forward in time, they tend to fall victim of simulation-bias (Atance and O'Neill, 2001;Galistel, 2017; Kahneman and Tversky, 1977, 1979, 1982; Kaku, 2014). And in order to define the proper prospect, its also important to understand the current state (Duncker, 1945).
So, how should one go about to conclude a reasonable current state?
On March 23, I suggested Disjunctive reasoning (Stanovich, 2009), which is applying what you know about logic, probabilities, and scientific method, as well as taking many sources into consideration (Österberg, 2020). The conclusion:
The conclusion so far seems to be that the virus thrives when we gather together. If we stay apart, it cannot 'travel through our species'. Face masks seem to have some protection. Also, we don't know everything about how many people are infected. If the figures from Johns Hopkins are true, the risk of dying is much higher than by traditional flu. If the stats reported by Lachmann are accurate, the risk seems to diminish. Adding to that, lifestyle seems to matter (alter the explanation). People who eat a lot of processed and ultra-processed alternatives to real food seem to fare worse than people who eat real food. Focus on the consumption of micronutrients, e.g. 13 vitamins (e.g. A, several B:s, C, some D, E, K2-Mk4 and Mk7), 15-16 minerals (Heme-Iron, Magnesium, Zinc and so forth), Choline, and Docosahexaenoic, Arachidonic fatty acidsA recent study suggests that the risk of contracting COVID19 is significantly lower than previously thought (Bendavid et al. 2020 (preprint)Ioannidis (YouTube, 3 min.).
We also need to get acquainted with two new concepts.
The first is called 'Cytokine storm' and goes something like this:
The other is called Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2):Normally, when the human body encounters a germ, the immune system attacks the invader and then stands down. But sometimes, that orderly army of cells wielding molecular weapons gets out of control, morphing from obedient soldiers into an unruly, torch- and pitchfork-bearing mob. Though there are tests and treatments that could help to identify and tamp down this insurrection, it’s too early to be sure of the best course of therapy for those who are suffering a storm due to Covid-19. Variants on this hyperactive immune reaction occur in an array of conditions, triggered by infection, faulty genes or autoimmune disorders in which the body thinks its own tissues are invaders (see box). All fall under the umbrella term “cytokine storm,” named because substances called cytokines rampage through the bloodstream. These small proteins — there are dozens — are the immune army’s messengers, transiting between cells with a variety of effects: Some ask for more immune activity; some request less. This is not the first time a cytokine storm has been linked to a pandemic. Scientists suspect that cytokine storms caused many of the fatalities in the 1918 flu pandemic and the 2003 outbreak of SARS, a virus related to the one that causes Covid-19 (Dance, 2020)
Adding Cytokine Storm and ACE2 to the conclusion about nutrients will go something like this (its a transcript from a podcast-interview Susan MacTavish Best did with Robert Lustig):"When an infected person expels virus-laden droplets and someone else inhales them, the novel coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, enters the nose and throat. It finds a welcome home in the lining of the nose, according to a preprint from scientists at the Wellcome Sanger Institute and elsewhere. They found that cells there are rich in a cell-surface receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Throughout the body, the presence of ACE2, which normally helps regulate blood pressure, marks tissues vulnerable to infection, because the virus requires that receptor to enter a cell. Once inside, the virus hijacks the cell’s machinery, making myriad copies of itself and invading new cells (Wadman et al. 2020).
In conclusion. The probability that SARS-CoV-2 will travel through your body in a harmful way is low. But if you suffer from a welfare disease, like metabolic syndrome, the risk of ending up in a hospital or even perish seems to increase significantly.People think that the virus kills you. No, actually, its the Cytokine storm that kills you. The virus sets you up for that storm, no argument there. Some people survive that storm and some people don't, but people who don't survive are people already in a pro-inflammatory state: Obesity, Type 2-Diabetes, Heart-disease, hypertension, all of who have chronic metabolic disease, which are all symptoms of a pro-inflammatory state. The question: what caused the pro-inflammatory state? That's where food comes in.
Three reasons, all having to do with food:First, COVID19 is using a portal attached to each as its method of entry, its injection point if you will, and that portal is called ACE2. The more ACE2, the more infectivity. It turns out, insulin is a driver for ACE2; the more insulin-resistant you are, the more ACE2 molecules you have and therefore, more infectivity, and therefore the greater the cytokine storm.
The second had to do with processed food and the lack of soluble fiber. When the colon gets converted to a compound called butyric acid or butyrate, and that's an anti-inflammatory, and that has shown to knock down the COVID19 response in your body and keep the Cytokine storm at bay. If you are eating processed food you're not getting that butyrate.
The third has to do with diabetes itself. The higher your blood glucose, if you have diabetes, the more glycosylated the COVID19 is, which makes it harder for the body to clear.
Food will indirectly drive the Cytokine storm making it more likely that you will succumb" (Lustig, 2020; How Many Ways Will Sugar Kill You?, 8 first minutes).
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