The Future of Agriculture from a Perspective of Rational Entrepreneurial Thinking

Conclusions from a three-year research Project about the prospects of agriculture from a perspective of entrepreneurial thinking. This project (2018-2021) was financed by Finlands-svenska Jordfonden RS. Research leader, Peter Österberg, Ph.D.

“- Donations of this kind mean a lot to the faculty. They enable quick investments in new thematic areas, in this case e.g. business management and marketing, and gives us the capacity to renew and develop our operations more quickly. I am very happy and grateful, says the faculty dean Ritva Toivonen”

(Image: Suvipäivikki Mikola). Oktober, 4, 2018. The Chancellor for the University of Helsingfors thanked Jordfonden for the donation for Dr Österberg's research project. From left: Tom Böhling, pro-rector, John Sumelius, professor agricultural economics, Ritva Toivonen, dean of the faculty of Agriculture and forestry, Håkan Fagerström, ombudsman, Jordfonden, Marcus Borgström, chairman, Jordfonden, Peter Österberg, research leader, and Kaarle Hämeri, Chancellor for the University of Helsingfors. 

Talks between Stiftelsen Finlandssvenska Jordfonden RS and Dr. Österberg during 2014-2017 led to Jordfonden’s decision to finance Dr. Österberg on a three-year research assignment (Agust 15 2018- Agust 14 2021; category 3, where 4 means full professorship) to use his expertise on prospective thinking to explore the future of agriculture and to network with farmer's and other organizations.

A key finding of the project is the lack of entrainment between farmers and consumers, and thus calling for improvement of ‘agricultural communication’. Also see summary in attachment.

Dr. Österberg has:

1. supervised bachelor, master’s, and doctoral thesis’, 
2. been head of the Departments Well-being team, 
3. been a member of the research group Management and Organizations for Sustainable Food systems, 
4. been part of an application to the Academy of Finland. 

The project also included lecturing, in Swedish and English.

As a member of Professor John Sumelius' group, Dr. Österberg taught three courses in Swedish (TVEX):

1. Leadership, decision making, goal-setting, and creativity 
2. The future of agriculture 
3. Qualitative methods.

For Dr. Leena Rantamäki-Lahtinen’s Agere-program, Dr. Österberg introduced an international course which attracted students from all over Europe:

1. Leadership & Organization (advanced level; English) 

Dr. Österberg also taught Entrepreneurship.

 

Dr Österberg's Exams:

1. Marketing, especially consumer attitudes, IHM, 1994.
2. BA, Business Administration, especially Organizational Learning. Qualitative method. University of Gävle, 2002.
3. MSc Business administration., Organizational Learning, Quantitative method. University of Gävle, 2004.
4. BA, Experimental Emotional Psychology/Psychophysiology. Uppsala University, 2001.
5. MSc Social Psychology, especially parent-child relations, Quantitative methods, questionnaires. Mälardalen University, 2004.
6. PhD. Work and Organizational Psychology, especially Leadership style and Social Creativity for Problem solving, Lund university, 2012.

Pedagogic courses (Swedish)

1. UP 2.2. (2019). Pedagogisk utvärdering.
2. UP 3.1. (2019). Handledning vid universitet och handledarpraktik.
3. UP 3.2. (2020). Utveckling av den egna undervisningen och undervisningspraktik.
4. UPÄ 3. (2021). Pedagogiskt ledarskap och utveckling av universitetsundervisning.

Publications (within the project)

1. Österberg, P. (2019). Hur ser framtiden ut för Finlands bönder? November, Landsbygdens folk.
2. Ekström, A. & Österberg, P. (2020). Mitigating myside bias through disjunctive reasoning: Implications for healthy food choices and policy. Poster. Virtual Conference, Cognitive Economics. July.
3. Österberg, P. (2020). Pre-print. Is livestock in agriculture an issue for climate? The case for disjunctive reasoning, blog, July.
4. Österberg & Köping Olsson (2021). Dancing: a strategy to maintain schoolchildren’s openness for idea generation. Journal of Physical Education, Recreation & Dance, 92 (3), 20-25.
5. Österberg, P. (2021). ‘Meta-Cognitive Sensitivity in Disjunctive Reasoning for Intentional Imagery’. Proceeding. 21st Futures Conference Learning Future - Futures of learning. June 8 - 9.
6. Österberg, P. (2021). Att leda ur en kris (2021). Affärsmagasinet Forum, June 10.
7. Österberg, P. (2021). Viljelijöiden otettava paikkansa ruokakeskustelussa (2021). Maaseudun Tulevaisuus. July 30.
8. Österberg, P. (2021). Vad är det finländska jordbrukets framtid från ett perspektiv av rationellt entreprenöriellt tänkande? Monografi. Helda. University of Helsinfors.
9. Österberg, P (2022). Is academic leadership really independent from academic management? Proceeding, Nordic Academy of Management, 26th Biennial NFF Conference, Örebro university, Sweden, August, 23-26.

Popular science publications

1. What kind of leadership will influence market-based generative learning in any organization? (UH) (link). August, 2018.
2. Communication style. Examples from two talk show hosts (Link), November, 2018.
3. Så skiljer sig koldioxidavtrycket mellan Finland och Kina (Link). December, 2018.
4. Språk- och kunskapsutvecklande undervisning i det flerspråkiga klassrummet – med fokus naturvetenskap. Systematisk översikt 2018:02. En kommentar (Link). January, 2019.
5. Perception versus facts" Is School Strike for Climate just another Doomsday Prophecy? (UH) (Link). March, 2019.
6. "Perception versus facts": What is the future for sustainable food? The case of the prospective mind (link). May, 2019.
7. Hur man bibehåller tvåspråkighet bland studenter på Helsingfors universitet (UH) (Link). May, 2019.
8. "Perception kontra fakta": Livsmedelsverkets påstående att 6 000 [svenska] liv kan sparas med växtbaserad föda verkar bygga på bekräftelse-bias (UH) (Link), May, 2019.
9. Leadership and Organization course (AGERE 026) at University of Helsingfors, (UH) (Link). June, 2019.
10. What did IPCC say in their latest report? (UH) (Link). August, 2019.
11. Will conformity about food preferences and collapse anxiety suppress viewpoint diversity at universities? (UH) (Link). August, 2019.
12. Can we have a Conversation about the association between Food Preferences and Work Environment? An outlook at the Viikki campus (link). September, 2019.
13. UniCafe will stop serving beef next year. Is that a decision based on Disjunctive reasoning? (link). October, 2019.
14. Leadership and Public Inter-personal Communication (link). October, 2019.
15. Concentrate to be able to embrace global progress (Link). November, 2019.
16. Unconscious Bias, Seminar at Viikki Campus: Are we biased against biases because of Groupthink? (Link). November, 2019.
17. Reframing the result from food questionnaires (Link). February, 2020.
18. On the Psychology of Toilet Paper (SARS-CoV-2/COVID19): the Case for Disjunctive Reasoning (Link). March, 2020.
19. Fem enkla tips för att upprätthålla mental hälsa (Link). April, 2020.
20. What’s the Post-SARS-CoV-2/COVID19 Prospect? (Link). May, 2020.
21. Vänd på ’tallriken’ (Debattartikel, Marthaförbundets tidning Martha) (Link; Swedish). September, 2020.
22. Does leadership matter in times of uncertainty? (Link). Oktober, 2020.
23. Ny forskning: Människor som avstår animalisk föda mår och presterar sämre. Företagande. se, (Link (Swedish), April 4, 2021.

Science conferences, symposiums and presentations

1. What is the Prospect for Agriculture? (2019). Post Doc symposium, Think Corner, University of Helsingfors, Finland. Presentation, March 3.
2. Origins of Creativity (2019). Gothenburg Science Festival, Sweden, 2 presentations, April.
3. The role of Ruminants in Sustainable Diets (2019). BAMST/IDF. June, 20. Symposium, Brussels.
4. What’s the future of food? (2020). Presentation, Maataloustieteen päivät, Helsingfors, Finland, January, 8.
5. What’s the Prospect of Sustainable Food: The Case for Mental health. Department of Food and Nutrition (2020). Vik seminar series for experts om in food and nutrition, University of Helsingfors. Jan, 23.
6. Mitigating myside bias through disjunctive reasoning: Implications for healthy food choices and policy (2020). Cognitive Economics, London. Poster, July, 9.
7. The future of agriculture from a perspective of entrepreneurial thinking (2021). Challengers of Economics, Education and Society Development in the Nordic – Baltic Countries and beyond. Nordic Association of Agricultural Sciences. Presentation, March 3.
8. Why are people so gloomy when most things are better than ever? (2021). Gothenburg Science Festival. Presentation, April.
9.  ‘Meta-Cognitive Sensitivity in Disjunctive Reasoning for Intentional Imagery’ (2021). Future learning. Presentation, June, 9.
10. Work climate and Job Satisfaction (2021). Faculty of Science, University of Helsingfors. June 2.
11. 'Why do people hate agriculture'? (2021). IDF Global Dairy Conference. Copenhagen, Denmark. Presentation. October, 15.
12. What's the future of agriculture? the case for entrepreneurial thinking (2021). Verghese Kurien Centre of Excellence, Inst of Rural Man Anand, India, August 27, 2021. Link to the presentation.
13. Why do people hate agriculture? (2021). Presentation, Aristoteles University, Thessaloniki, December 16.
14. Is academic leadership really independent from academic management? Nordic Academy of Management, 26th Biennial NFF Conference, Örebro university, Sweden, Presentation, August, 23-26, 2022.
15. Den positiva storyn om jordbruket. (2022). Bondebåten, 18 november.

Teaching

1. YET-222 Ledarskap - kreativitet (Svenska, TVEX).
2. YET-223 ‘Aktuella lantbruksekonomiska frågor’ (Svenska, TVEX).
3. EKM-121 Kvalitativ metod (Svenska, TVEX).
4. YET-014 Entrepreneurship (2020; English/Finnish).
5. AGERE-026 Leadership & Organization (advanced level; English).

Supervision

Bachelor's, master's, and one doctoral thesis.

The third mission

Networking with experts abroad: Experts in Agriculture, Anthropology, Biochemistry, climate & air pollution, Journalism, Medicine, and Nutrition.

Networking in Finland. Svenskspråkiga föreningar: Handelsgillet, Nordisk kulturfond, Svenska bildningsförbundet, Svenska Folkpartiet, Svenska Gillet, Åggelby svenska förening m fl., as well as doing presentations:

1. 2018. Hur möta en jordbrukare i kris: att vara kreativ och målstyrd i rådgivningsarbetet. SLF kongress, Åbo, Okt 24.
2. 2018. Hur kommer matkonsumtionen att förändras? SLC:s förbundskongress. Nov 27.
3. 2018. Are we really feeling bad at work? Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsingfors, Dec 17.
4. 2018. Astonishing Thoughts - On Creativity, its origin and application. Think Corner, Helsingfors university. Dec 20.
5. 2019. Köttproduktion i Finland ur i ett närings & klimatperspektiv. Västra Nylands köttproducenter, Ekenäs, Helsingfors. May 13.
6. 2019. Vilken är framtidens mat? Österbottens kött, Vasa. Sept 26.
7. 2019. 100 års jubileum. Finlands svenska andelsförbund, Helsingfors. Nov 6.
8. 2019. Finns det plats för nyskapande, nytänk och entreprenörskap i samband med klimatkrisen? Handelsgillet, Helsingfors. Nov 20.
9. 2020. Köttproduktion och klimat. Ecomeat, Ekenäs, Feb 12.
10. 2020. Vad är matens framtid? Utbildningsstyrelsens ordförande, Marjaana Manninen, Helsingfors. Nov 23.
11. 2020. Om mat. Snellman, Dec 18.
12. 2021. Människans ursprung. Svenska Gillet, Helsingfors March 1.
13. 2021. Presentation av projektets resultat. Stiftelsen Finlandssvenska Jordfonden RS styrelse. April 7.
14. 2021. Hur rätt kost och omgivning kan påverka kreativitet och entreprenörsdriv. Företagande.se, April 21.
15. 2021. Framtidens jordbruk från ett perspektiv av entreprenöriellt tänkande. LRF Väst. May 26.
16. 2021. Framtidens jordbruk från ett perspektiv av entreprenöriellt tänkande. LRF Väst. May 27. 

Media

1. Målstyrning också viktigt för jordbrukare. Landsbygdens Folk, 9 november, 2019.
2. Kött har sin plats på tallriken. Klövar & Timotej, februari, 2020.

Appendix.

Summary of the report (Monograph)

There is a negative attitude towards agriculture, often expressed in the context of climate change. But the question is whether the claims are true?

Humans are born with mental biases that promote negative prospects over positive ditto (Baumeister et al. 2001).

"A person’s negative bias is an evolutionary hangover going as far back as our cave-dwelling days. It has us irrationally scanning for saber-toothed tigers on the prowl ready to attack us at any moment. This fear is deeply rooted in our subconscious, referred to as our “fight or flight” response. When the chemistry is active, the back of our brain in the hippocampus region yanks itself offline to ensure its protection" (Moss, 2017).

These [false] mental representations transform into memes - ideas, behaviors, styles, or usages that spreads from person to person within a culture - that sustain over a lifetime and over generations and that can be described in terms of ‘tribalism’ (Pagel, 2019), groupthink (Janis, 1972; Turner & Pratkanis, 1998), or dogma (Haidt, 2012). I suggest three mental strategies: epistemic vigilance (Sperber et al. 2010), Numeracy (Brooks & Pui, 2010), Disjunctive reasoning (Stanovich, 2015) to overcome "tribal thinking' (Österberg, 2021; In Swedish and Finnish).

4 million years ago, after some significant climate changes, our ancestors changed their diet to include animal source food. This nutrient-dense diet started an expansion of their brains and a corresponding reduction of their intestinal systems  (Aiello & Wheeler, 1995; Mann, 2018; Thompson et al. 2019). This opened the door for our genus – Homo (Villmoare et al. 2015) and eventually mental capacities like social cognition 1.8 Mya. This means that the human mind is wired for social coordination to establish entrainment by non-verbal or communication (Dunbar, 2009). 200 000 - 60 000 years ago saw the introduction of the executive functions, including the ability to experience the future by prediction, intention, simulation, and planning, and grammatical language (Coolidge & Wynn, 2018; Gilbert & Wilson, 2007; Szpunar et al. 2014). Language could now be used for rhythmic synchronization of behavior (Borrie, 2017). A prerequisite for this social coordination to result in new ideas, that is, entrepreneurial thinking, is heterodoxy (Haidt, 2012).

Modern nutrition research demonstrates that it is risk-free to eat animal-source food (ASF), including saturated fats (Astrup et al 2020; Johnston et al 2019). Consumption of meat, eggs and full-fat dairies is crucial for maintaining physical and mental health (Adesogan et al. 2019; Balehegn et al. 2019; Ede, 2019; Iannotti, 2018; Itkonen et al 2020; Tong et al. 2020). That’s because ASF is nutrient dense, covering >30 micronutrients humans need to sustain physical and mental health: 13 vitamins: A, B-complex, C, several D, E and K2; 15-16 minerals: heme-iron, salt, iodine, zinc, etc. choline, DHA, EPA (Leroy & Cofnas, 2019; Ylilauri et al. 2019). 2% of a normal population abstains from ASF, but ~85% of these choose to return to regular food within a year (Herzog, 2014). There is an association between vegetarianism and lack of mental wellbeing, neuroticism, and difficulties with social coordination (Dobersek et al. 2020; Forestell & Nezlek, 2018; Nezlek, Forestell & Newman, 2018; Plante et al. 2019).

Climate is a complex phenomenon where trace gases move between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere in a cyclic fashion Central for this process is the carbon cycle. (IPCC, 2013; Riebeek & Simmons, 2011). Of the global greenhouse gas emissions, 0.13% originate from Finland. Of these, 12% come from agriculture (Nylund, 2019). But agriculture has its own carbon cycle -  Biogenic Carbon Cycle (CLEAR Center); methane from burping cows transform within 12 years to CO2 by a process called hydroxyl oxidation. Therefore, the contributions of GHG from the production of ASF is dwarfed in western countries (Liebe, White & Hall, 2020; White & Hall, 2017). The main contributors of GHG are transportation, energy production and industries (Hristov et al. 2014; Mottet & Steinfeld, 2018; Nylund, 2019). Ergo: Finnish agriculture is efficient, ecologically oriented and climate-smart (Österberg, 2019).

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Balehegn et al. (2019). Animal-sourced foods for improved cognitive development. Animal Frontiers, 9 (4), 50–57.

Baumeister et al. (2001). Bad Is Stronger Than Good. Review of General Psychology, 5 (4), 323-370.

Borrie, S. (2017). Entrainment and the dance of conversation. TEDxUSU, 12 december.

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Dunbar, R.I.M. (2009). The social brain hypothesis and its implications for social evolution. Annals of Human Biology, 36 (5), 562 - 572.

Ede, G. (2019). The Brain Needs Animal Fat: Why humans can't thrive on plants alone. Psychology Today, March 31.

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Österberg, P. (2021b). Viljelijöiden otettava paikkansa ruokakeskustelussa. July, Maaseudun Tulevaisuus.

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