Thursday, September 10, 2026

Poor Puska. He marketed the Diet-heart hypothesis. That mistake cost Finland dearly. Another case for Continuous Influence Effect?

Pekka Puska became famous in Finland and in the rest of the world as the project manager for North Karelia Project, which evolved from american rise in cardio vascular disease during the interwar period and Swedish Haqvin Malmros. But the diet-heart hypothesis failed when tested. As late as March 2022, the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) reiterated that it had been successful in that regard. That mistake cost Finland dearly. Worth noting. From January 1, 2022 until December 31, 2026, Finland will have an excess mortality of ~50,000 Finns compared to Sweden (~10,000 Finns per year). In Finland, it is believed that this is explained by a haplo-baplo gene. Is it another case for the Continuous Influence Effect? In the rest of the world, it is common to believe that it is explained by what you eat or don't eat.

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Poor Puska. He marketed the Diet-heart hypothesis – the claim that saturated fat would cause a heart attack and that salt would be harmful. As late as March 2022, the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) reiterated that it had been successful in that regard. That mistake cost Finland dearly.

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But, did Puska and THL ever check whether the Diet-heart hypothesis was true?

The Diet-heart hypothesis arose in the USA during the interwar period because too many men died of heart attacks (Teicholz, 2014). In the Nordic countries, the Diet-heart hypothesis became known through Haqvin Malmros (1895 – 1995), professor of medicine at Lund University.

During the 1940s, Malmros collected epidemiological data from the Nordic countries and a state in the northern USA (where many Nordic people typically live; Yamnaya). The conclusion was that saturated fat increased serum cholesterol (from food) in the blood, which was claimed to cause atherosclerosis (Malmros, 1950). Malmros' conclusion was noticed by another epidemiologist – Ancel Keys (1904 – 2004) – who launched a global project to replicate Malmros' conclusions. Keys and his team collected data from 22 countries but found no correlation between saturated fat consumption and heart problems.

Instead of giving up, they started removing countries from the dataset; France, where dinners were based on food cooked in lard and where heart attacks were conspicuous by their absence, obviously did not fit into Keys & Co’s fantasy world where saturated fat had been demonized a priori. Then another 14 countries were excluded from the dataset. Seven countries remained. The project was therefore called the Seven Countries Study (SCS).

Finland, but not Sweden, was one of the countries. And since Finland has two official languages and thus cultures (Cavalli-Sforza, 1997; Pagel, 2009; Reich, 2019), partly the trade language/culture around the Gulf of Bothnia (~9th century, Klinge, 1985), and partly a Uralic language/culture introduced by Alexander II (1818 – 1881) during Russia's occupation of the former Grand Duchy of Sweden (1809 – 1917), data was taken from two areas: (1) Åbo, the Swedes' main trading post in the east (1229) where the trade language was typically spoken, (2) North Karelia where Uralic-Finnish was typically spoken. The result showed that 300/10,000 Finns in the Årbo area died of heart-related diseases each year, while the corresponding figure for North Karelia was 995/10,000 (Teicholz, 2014).

In 1972, the North Karelia Project was therefore launched to curb the spread of heart disease, but only in North Karelia. And the focus was on convincing the residents of the area to reduce their consumption of butter and salt. And as I said, in March 2022, THL considered that they had been successful in that regard.

34 years after the launch of the North Karelia Project, the world's largest RCT study on women's health was published, testing the Diet-heart hypothesis.
RCT stands for Randomized control trial and, unlike questionnaire studies (FFQ), provides robust results.
The study on women's health cost 700 million dollars, which is equivalent to ~1 billion dollars in today's money.
The results in the main tables show no connection whatsoever between saturated fat consumption and heart disease. A smaller table on page 661 shows that women with a history of health issues who reduced their intake of saturated fat by 10% had a 28% increased risk of suffering a heart attack (Howard et al. 2006).

Investigative journalist Nina Teicholz reviewed nutrition research and concluded that saturated fat is harmless (Teicholz, 2014).

A couple of years later, results from RCT analyses of data from the Seven Countries Study that had been forgotten in a basement were published. The results again rejected the Diet-heart hypothesis – the claim that saturated fat causes heart problems (Ramsden et al. 2016).

Salt. We have learned that salt raises blood pressure. But the J-curve shows that reducing salt consumption to zero leads to an exponentially increased risk of suffering a heart attack and that we should eat 1.5 – 2.5 teaspoons of salt a day (Mente, 2018; Mente et al. 2021).

Salt is therefore crucial for heart health, but why should we eat saturated fat?

Our species has adapted to a diet based on bone marrow (animal fat) and meat (Aiello och Dunbar, 1993; Aiello och Wheeler, 1995; Mann, 2018; McPherron et al. 2010; Hublin et al. 2015; Pobiner, 2013, 2016; Pontzer et al 2016; Thompson et al. 2019; Österberg, 2019).

Saturated fat is required for the brain to produce myelin, a white fat that enables communication between nerve cells, as well as for the anterior cingulate cortex to function properly (e.g. to prevent uncontrolled outbursts of rage) (Ede, 2019, 2024; Poitelon et al. 2020; Ylilauri et al. 2019).

What is the health situation in Finland?

Shortly after the Puskas North Karelia project had started, Alzheimer's cases began to increase significantly and today Finland has the highest prevalence of Alzheimer's in the world (Österberg, 2022). 50% of Finnish women and 33% of Finnish men over 45 are expected to be affected (Finnish Brain Foundation, 2024). A significant marker for dementia, e.g. Alzheimer's, is aggression.

In 2023, the EU/OECD conducted surveys of causes of death within the EU. A comparison between Finland and Sweden is particularly interesting.

Death due to Alzheimer's:

* Finland: 20%. 100% higher per capita compared to Sweden.

* Sweden: 10%.

Death due to heart problems:

* Finland: 15%. 50% higher per capita compared to Sweden.

* Sweden: 10%.

In addition, since 2020, Finnish authorities have raised the alarm about at least 41 significant challenges that can be explained by what people eat or do not eat, e.g. childhood obesity epidemic (Roos, Folkhälsan,2020), Finnish women's relationship aggression is the big challenge (Helsinki Police, April, 2022) (A significant marker for dementia, e.g. Alzheimer's, is aggression.), anxiety-related sick leave that costs Finnish taxpayers one billion per year (Vasabladet, 2024). Worth noting. From January 1, 2022 until December 31, 2026, Finland will have an excess mortality of ~50,000 Finns compared to Sweden (~10,000 Finns per year) (Österberg, 2025).

In Finland, it is believed that this is explained by a haplo-baplo gene. Is it another Another case for Continuous Influence Effect?

In the rest of the world, it is common to believe that it is explained by what you eat or don't eat.

PS. On January 23, 2020, I was invited to the Department of Food and Nutrition at the Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki to open their lecture series for experts in food and nutrition. Here is the abstract for my lecture: What’s the Prospect of sustainable Food? The Case for mental health

Here is my take on the US new scientifically based dietary guideline (Österberg, 2026).

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More about my expertise Executive coaching for CEOs/managers and workshops to facilitate Organizational Performance, Learning, and Creativity for Problem Solving | Lectures: Nutrition for physical and mental health | Course/lecture: children's emotional and social adjustment and cognitive development | Language training - Swedish | Academy Competency | CV | Teaching skills and experience | Summary of research project | Instagram | Linkedin | YouTube-channel | TikTok | X

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