Peter Österberg, PhD: Nutrition psychology, The New American Dietary Guidelines. At last, The case for Rational Entrepreneurial Thinking

On January 7, 2026, the US department of Health and Human services presented an update of the dietary guidelines. A new food pyramid was also presented, and it was upside down, placing meat, fish, eggs, and cheese at the top together with vegetables and fruits. At the bottom, grains. The new advice is at odds with the Nordic Dietary Guidelines. I believe that the old dietary guidelines exist because of Continued Influence Effect and other mental fallacies, which interact in a reinforcing loop. I also believe that secretary Kennedy and his team used a way of thinking which resonates with Rational Entrepreneurial Thinking. 5 pages.

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On January 7, 2026, the US department of Health and Human services presented an update of the dietary guidelines.

Link to source

Link to source

A new food pyramid was also presented, and it was upside down, placing meat, fish, eggs, and cheese at the top together with vegetables and fruits. At the bottom, grains.

The new advice is at odds with the Nordic Dietary Guidelines presented by the WHO in the summer of 2023, but completely in line with nutrition studies conducted using valid methods.

3.6 million years before the present, our ancestors ate bone marrow, which triggered a process which reduced their guts and expanded their brains, from the occipetal lobe and forward (Aiello och Dunbar, 1993; Aiello och Wheeler, 1995; Hublin et al. 2015; McPherron et al. 2010; Pontzer et al 2016; Thompson et al. 2019).
2.6 million years before the present, they ate meat, which further reduced their guts and expanded their brain, from the occipetal lobe and forward (Pobiner, 2013, 2016).
In the 1940s, Haqvin Malmros (1895 – 1995), a physician, medical doctor, and professor in medicine at Lund university, conducted a study to answer the question why atherosclerosis had become so prevalent. Despite having war-time in the title of the paper, Malmros concluded that saturated fats were to blame, because it raises serum cholesterol (Malmros, 1950). This became the diet-heart hypothesis.
1954, an epidemiologist by the name of Ancel Keys (1904 – 2004), reiterated Dr. Malmros claims:
“a major factor in this difference lies in the relationship among dietary fats, serum cholesterol and atherosclerosis” (Elliott, 2014).
In 1958, Ancel Keys (1904 – 2004) launched a global project to test the diet-heart hypothesis – the Seven countries study. One of the countries was Finland (Teicholz, 2023). Data was sampled from two cohorts – Åbo in the southwest, with a typically Swedish-speaking population, and north Karelia, with a typical Uralic-speaking population. In Finland, this became known as the North Karelia Project, and it probably put the university on the global academic map.
As late as March 2022, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare wrote this on their home page:
“From the outset, the goal was to lower cholesterol and blood pressure levels through dietary changes, including a reduction in the use of butter and salt”.

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State owned legacy media Yle has previously allowed a Finnish nutritionist by the name of Mikael Fogelholm to reiterate the diet-heart hypothesis and the claim that consumption of meat causes colon cancer (2012 – 2025; Yle, 2012; Lamppu och Fredriksson, 2015; Yle, 2021; Virtanen och Hackman, 2023)
The diet-heart hypothesis was tested several times, and rejected (Howard et al. 2006; Nutrition Coalition; Ramsden et al. 2016).
NutriRecs used a new method – GRADE – to test if red meat and processed meat was bad for health. The result rejected any such claim (Han et al. 2019; Johnston et al. 2019; Zeraatkar et al. 2019).
Despite this, Nordic dietary guidelines was presented during the summer of 2023. My comment (Österberg, 2023).
I summarized a list of articles I have written, including popular science articles, on nutrition psychology – how we think about food and how food influence how we think, which gives a hint about what we should eat (Österberg, 2024).
I also presented a model to suppress mental fallacies, like Continued influence effect. It's called Rational Entrepreneurial Thinking (Österberg, 2021, chapter 2, in Swedish).
I believe that the old dietary guidelines exist because of Continued Influence Effect and other mental fallacies, which interact in a reinforcing loop. I also believe that secretary Kennedy and his team used a way of thinking which resonates with Rational Entrepreneurial Thinking, i.e., epidemic vigilance, numeracy, and disjunctive reasoning (Shafir, 1994; Stanovich, 2009; Toplak and Stanovich, 2002).

Friday, January 9, 2026

Nutrition psychology, The New American Dietary Guidelines. At last, The case for Rational Entrepreneurial Thinking

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